Ocean science in action: How ocean data helps to better predict the impacts of climate change

IOC

Ocean science in action: How ocean data helps to better predict the impacts of climate change

Ocean science in action: How ocean data helps to better predict the impacts of climate change 1000 540 Ocean Decade

This article is part of our new ‘Ocean Science in Action’ series, which highlights achievements and success stories from our network of endorsed Decade Actions.

Climate change is having devastating impacts on the ocean, causing marine heatwaves, ocean acidification, sea-level rise, and deoxygenation. These profound shifts harm marine life and ecosystems, and the coastal communities who depend on them.

In this article, we highlight four initiatives endorsed by the UN Decade of Ocean Science for Sustainable Development 2021-2030 (‘Ocean Decade’) that use ocean data to advance ocean predictions and climate adaptation.

Data from ocean observations reveal what is happening beneath, on, and above the ocean. They underpin our ability to predict, manage, and adapt to changes in the marine environment. From temperature and currents to chemistry, biodiversity, and human impacts, these observations support every weather forecast, conservation plan, and ocean policy decision.

Today, more than 80 countries contribute to global ocean observing networks, operating thousands of platforms that “see the sea”, capturing more than 120,000 observations each day. Since 1991, the Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission (IOC) of UNESCO, through the Global Ocean Observing System (GOOS), has led this global community, enabling countries to observe the ocean in a coordinated, sustained, and globally integrated way to deliver critical information on the ocean’s physical, chemical, and biological conditions.

Beyond traditional research and monitoring instruments, ocean data now come from an ever-growing network of contributors. While there are only about 100 dedicated research vessels worldwide, more than 50,000 commercial ships are at sea every day – many of which now have the opportunity to contribute scientific observations. To expand this potential, the IOC co-led 10 000 Ships for the Ocean initiative, launched at the 2025 UN Ocean Conference, calls on the shipping industry to equip commercial vessels with sensors and make them real-time observing platforms. Beyond cargo ships, fishing boats, yachts, surfers, beachgoers, and even elephant seals also gather data that help scientists to better understand how the ocean is changing.

Building on these efforts, the Ocean Decade Corporate Data Group is forging new partnerships with the private sector. It unites companies from marine industries, including fisheries, energy, telecommunications, and marine contractors to develop mechanisms that make privately held ocean data publicly accessible for the benefit of science and society

As part of the Ocean Decade, scientists across the world work together to better understand climate impacts on the ocean – from fish biodiversity to extreme weather events. The four success stories below highlight how the Ocean Decade is generating and using ocean data at every stage of its lifecycle to better predict and adapt to the impacts of climate change.

Migratory Crossroads: Tracking tiny ocean travellers in a changing climate

Every day, billions of tiny creatures embark on the largest synchronized movement of animals in the world: the vertical migration of zooplankton. Tiny larvae, mollusks, and crustaceans move up and down the water column, following light and fleeing predators. Vital to ocean life, zooplankton is the basis of all oceanic food chains, and one of the main ways the ocean absorbs carbon dioxide. Changes affecting zooplankton can ripple through the entire ocean.

The Decade Project Migratory Crossroads, led by the Norwegian research institute Akvaplan-niva, harnesses ocean data and innovative predictive simulation models to understand how climate change impacts zooplankton in the Arctic.

Through traditional sampling methods coupled with cutting-edge autonomous vehicles and smart sensors, Migratory Crossroads has collected significant data on zooplankton in the Arctic. With this data, it has established pioneering models and tools to better predict the behaviors of Arctic zooplankton.

These include an open-source bio-physical simulation model, named “PASCal” (Pan-Arctic Behavioural and Life-history Simulator for Calanus) and “PlanktonVision” – a unique AI algorithm to annotate the images of zooplankton captured during expeditions. This technology lets scientists explore the hidden world of plankton, re-visiting and recreating ocean conditions from 1993 to 2100.

“Migratory Crossroads is constantly striving to cultivate and feature emerging ocean leaders,” said Kanchana Bandara, scientist at Akvaplan-niva. “To do so, the project places several early-career scientists like myself at the forefront of its data and modeling work.”

FISHGLOB: Building a global picture of changing marine biodiversity

Led by the University of Montpellier, France, and the University of British Columbia, Canada, the Decade Project Fish Biodiversity Facing Global Change (FISHGLOB) shows how long-term ecological monitoring is essential for understanding,  protecting and managing marine biodiversity.

Scientific bottom-trawl surveys are one of the world’s longest-running ocean monitoring programs. For decades, scientists have conducted bottom-trawl tows at depths from 30 to 1,000 feet to capture snapshots of ocean biodiversity. FISHGLOB integrates scientific bottom-trawl surveys from across every continent.

“FISHGLOB is bringing together regional experts of scientific bottom-trawl surveys and scientists from many regions of the world,” said Dr. Aurore Maureaud, FISHGLOB project co-lead. “We wanted the consortium to be inclusive of all showing an interest in participating to facilitate international capacity-sharing and uptake for better informed decision-making.”

The database already holds metadata from 95 surveys and records of more than 3,000 fish species collected between 1963 and 2020. By combining decades of data, the project is creating one of the most comprehensive global pictures of how demersal fish communities have changed and continue to change over time.

Study of Recent Behavior of Cyclones and Marine Heatwaves

In May 2020, the Bay of Bengal witnessed an extraordinary event: a marine heatwave interacted with tropical super cyclone Amphan. Incidents like this highlight the close connection of the ocean and atmosphere, and how changes in one can amplify the other.

To better understand and predict these events, the National Oceanographic and Maritime Institute (NOAMI) and the Hydro-Climate and Ocean Centre (HCO), Bangladesh, are leading the Decade Action “Study of Recent Behavior of Cyclones and Marine Heatwaves”. The Project aims to improve the predictions of cyclones and marine heatwaves in South Asia and the Indian Ocean. Using satellite remote sensing and numerical models, the Project improves the accuracy of forecasting and strengthens early-warning systems for both Tropical Cyclones (TCs) and marine heatwaves (MHW).

“Creating an optimal integration of satellite and in-situ observations is essential for understanding the full complexity of ocean–atmosphere interactions. Such an approach enhances forecasting accuracy and strengthens the foundation for a resilient global ocean–climate prediction system,” said Dr. Mohan Kumar Das, Executive Director of the Hydro-Climate and Ocean Centre and former Chief Scientist at NOAMI. “By using simple smartphone applications that display sea surface temperature and sea conditions, local communities can monitor environmental changes in real time through API links to near-real-time satellite ocean observation platforms. This low-cost approach enables community members to play an active role in early-warning systems and coastal risk reduction.”

Researchers are also analyzing dry and wet bulb temperature data from observations and simulations to explore links with the El Niño index.  These insights will deepen understanding of tropical cyclone behavior in the Bay of Bengal and their growing impact on Bangladesh’s coastal communities.

SynObs: Designing synergistic ocean observing network for ocean and climate predictions

The Decade Project “Synergistic Observing Network For Ocean Prediction” (SynObs), led by Meteorological Research Institute, Japan Meteorological Agency, combines models with data from different satellite and on-site ocean observing systems to produce ocean and Subseasonal-to-Seasonal simulations. The optimal combination of observing systems would lead to more reliable ocean, weather, and climate forecasts.

Those simulations made available to scientists from different backgrounds enable them to easily use these forecasts to analyse how accurate marine heatwaves, cyclones, and other ocean-climate event predictions depend on the observations ingested by the models. Its scope covers the global ocean, from tropical to polar regions, as well as global to coastal observing systems.

“It is essential to identify the most impactful in situ and satellite ocean observations for accurate predictions of ocean-climate events,” said Yosuke Fujii, Senior Researcher at the Meteorological Research Institute of the Japan Meteorological Agency. “This project should help to better design the Global Ocean Observing Network with an integrated point of view from operational forecasting centers.”

By harnessing synergy across the observing and the modelling community, SynObs is contributing to more efficient and sustainable ocean observing systems in the future.

These initiatives show that marine observation data are far from homogeneous. They represent an ever-growing volume and complexity across diverse disciplines, formats, and sources. Combined, they provide an essential foundation for advancing scientific research, informing policy, and addressing the impacts of climate change.

For more information, please contact:
Ocean Decade Communications Team (oceandecade.comms@unesco.org)

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About the Ocean Decade:

Proclaimed in 2017 by the United Nations General Assembly, the UN Decade of Ocean Science for Sustainable Development (2021-2030) (‘the Ocean Decade’) seeks to stimulate ocean science and knowledge generation to reverse the decline of the state of the ocean system and catalyse new opportunities for sustainable development of this massive marine ecosystem. The vision of the Ocean Decade is ‘the science we need for the ocean we want’. The Ocean Decade provides a convening framework for scientists and stakeholders from diverse sectors to develop the scientific knowledge and the partnerships needed to accelerate and harness advances in ocean science to achieve a better understanding of the ocean system, and deliver science-based solutions to achieve the 2030 Agenda. The UN General Assembly mandated the Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission (IOC) of UNESCO to coordinate the preparations and implementation of the Decade.

About the IOC:

The Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission (IOC) of UNESCO promotes international cooperation in marine sciences to improve management of the ocean, coasts and marine resources. The IOC enables its 152 Member States to work together by coordinating programmes in capacity development, ocean observations and services, ocean science and tsunami warning. The work of the IOC contributes to the mission of UNESCO to promote the advancement of science and its applications to develop knowledge and capacity, key to economic and social progress, the basis of peace and sustainable development.

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