Addressing Precipitation Prediction Grand Challenge (PPGC)

Addressing Precipitation Prediction Grand Challenge (PPGC)

Addressing Precipitation Prediction Grand Challenge (PPGC) 478 269 Ocean Decade

Lead institution:

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) – United States of America (USA)

The impacts from extreme precipitation are deadly, damaging, and increasing in a warming climate. Knowing when it will rain and how much will fall is crucial to every person and business across the globe.

The strategic goal of the PPGC Ocean Observation and Science Project is to provide dramatically more accurate, reliable, and timely precipitation forecasts for society. This is accomplished through:

  1. Better understanding of the ocean – atmosphere interface and atmospheric teleconnections
  2. More and better observations of the ocean and atmosphere over oceans, and
  3. The development, improvement  and application of a fully coupled Earth System prediction model

Particular focus is placed on better observing, understanding, and modeling of the tropical Pacific and Caribbean, where Small Island Developing States benefit from improved short term forecasts, and downstream North American and European nations benefit from improved medium range to sub-seasonal precipitation predictions. These advances in precipitation prediction can be integrated into early warning systems.

View the full Precipitation Prediction Grand Challenge Strategy here on

Related Products and Activities:

  • Global Precipitation EXperiment (GPEX) Science Plan
  • Experimental Caribbean and Central American Rainfall Graphic

Related Research and Publications:

Tropical Pacific

  • Modes and Mechanisms of Pacific Decadal-Scale Variability (Annual Review of Marine Science paperCPO story)
  • Volcanic forcing degrades multiyear-to-decadal prediction skill in the tropical Pacific (Science Advances paperCPO story)
  • Regional tropical rainfall shifts under global warming: an energetic perspective (Environmental Research: Climate paperCPO story)
  • Comparison of ADCP and ECCOv4r4 Currents in the Pacific Equatorial Undercurrent (Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology paper)
  • The role of in situ ocean data assimilation in ECMWF subseasonal forecasts of sea-surface temperature and mixed-layer depth over the tropical Pacific ocean (Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society paperCPO story)
  • Increase in MJO predictability under global warming (nature climate change paperCPO story)
  • Warm conveyor belt activity over the Pacific: modulation by the Madden–Julian Oscillation and impact on tropical–extratropical teleconnections (Weather and Climate Dynamics paperCPO story)


  • Atmospheric Flash Drought in the Caribbean (Journal of Hydrometeorology paper)
  • The Relationship Between the Saharan Air Layer, Convective Environmental Conditions, and Precipitation in Puerto Rico (JGR Atmospheres paperCPO webstory)

Start Date: 01/01/2023
End Date: 31/12/2030

Lead Contact: Dave Novak (

challenges: 5- Ocean-Climate Nexus, 6- Coastal Resilience, 7- Ocean Observations
ocean_basins: Arctic Ocean, North Atlantic Ocean, North Pacific Ocean, South Pacific Ocean
type_of_action: Contribution


The Science We Need for the Ocean We Want





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