Lead institution:
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) – United States of America (USA)
The impacts from extreme precipitation are deadly, damaging, and increasing in a warming climate. Knowing when it will rain and how much will fall is crucial to every person and business across the globe.
The strategic goal of the PPGC Ocean Observation and Science Project is to provide dramatically more accurate, reliable, and timely precipitation forecasts for society. This is accomplished through:
- Better understanding of the ocean – atmosphere interface and atmospheric teleconnections
- More and better observations of the ocean and atmosphere over oceans, and
- The development, improvement and application of a fully coupled Earth System prediction model
Particular focus is placed on better observing, understanding, and modeling of the tropical Pacific and Caribbean, where Small Island Developing States benefit from improved short term forecasts, and downstream North American and European nations benefit from improved medium range to sub-seasonal precipitation predictions. These advances in precipitation prediction can be integrated into early warning systems.
View the full Precipitation Prediction Grand Challenge Strategy here on noaa.gov.
Related Products and Activities:
- Global Precipitation EXperiment (GPEX) Science Plan
- Experimental Caribbean and Central American Rainfall Graphic
Related Research and Publications:
Tropical Pacific
- Modes and Mechanisms of Pacific Decadal-Scale Variability (Annual Review of Marine Science paper, CPO story)
- Volcanic forcing degrades multiyear-to-decadal prediction skill in the tropical Pacific (Science Advances paper, CPO story)
- Regional tropical rainfall shifts under global warming: an energetic perspective (Environmental Research: Climate paper, CPO story)
- Comparison of ADCP and ECCOv4r4 Currents in the Pacific Equatorial Undercurrent (Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology paper)
- The role of in situ ocean data assimilation in ECMWF subseasonal forecasts of sea-surface temperature and mixed-layer depth over the tropical Pacific ocean (Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society paper, CPO story)
- Increase in MJO predictability under global warming (nature climate change paper, CPO story)
- Warm conveyor belt activity over the Pacific: modulation by the Madden–Julian Oscillation and impact on tropical–extratropical teleconnections (Weather and Climate Dynamics paper, CPO story)
Caribbean
- Atmospheric Flash Drought in the Caribbean (Journal of Hydrometeorology paper)
- The Relationship Between the Saharan Air Layer, Convective Environmental Conditions, and Precipitation in Puerto Rico (JGR Atmospheres paper, CPO webstory)
Start Date: 01/01/2023
End Date: 31/12/2030
Lead Contact: Dave Novak (esib.secretariat@noaa.gov)
